Telluride, Colorado Real Estate- John Janus (970)-728-3205

Market News


months. Certain experts predict the tides may

start turning. The Wall Street Journal stated in a

June 3, 2009 article, “In another sign that the

housing market may have begun to recover,

the number of people who signed contracts to

purchase homes increased for the third month

in a row.” The piece included data from the

National Association of Realtors, which said its

pending home sales index rose 6.7% from

March (84.6) to April (90.3), and Joshua

Shapiro, an economist with MFR, the

Manhattan global

economic consulting

firm, was quoted:

“Clearly, within the

next couple of

months there’s going

to be a decent

increase in actual

homes sales.” On

another note, the

widely recognized

financial analyst,

Mad Money’s Jim

Cramer, predicted

back in September 2008 that the housing market

would bottom in the third quarter of 2009

(read more at: http://skiresortmarkets.com).

In examining TAR’s figures, numbers were

slow dollar-wise and transaction-wise , but

steady during the first six months of the year.

Sales for commercial properties totaled $4 million

over 10 transactions; condominiums, $19

million over 18 transactions; fractionals, $2.5

million over 27 transactions; land, $15 million

over 19 transactions; and residential, $41 million

over 32 transactions.

Fractional units (representing the second

highest sales numbers) were particularly noteworthy

in these financial times considering

they tend to be less expensive, owners pay

only for what they might use, and highly-valued

amenities are part of the package.

According to a report published by the

global consulting and services organization

HVS, titled “Resort Real Estate: Preparing for

Recovery,” and written by Andrew Cohan,

In a nutshell, Telluride is getting through it

like everyone else. On account of the current

state of the economy, or rather where it was

during the first two quarters of 2009, real

estate activity slowed considerably. After a

string of high marks between 2000 and 2007,

with the latter reaching record heights by

year’s end ($710 million in total dollar volume),

numbers changed significantly in 2008

and thus far in 2009. According to data compiled

by the Telluride Association of Realtors

(TAR), overall figures between January and

June 2009 were $80 million in total dollar

volume, distributed over 105 total transactions.

This is 54% lower than the first two

quarters of 2008, which totaled $174 million

and noticeably lower than earlier in the

decade when property values were less. TAR’s

figures encompass the greater Telluride

region, including San Miguel County, as well

as occasional out-of-county sales (i.e.

Montrose, Ridgway, and other communities).

But with a little optimism and acknowledgement

that ebbs and flows are the nature

of the real estate beast (albeit this ebb is a tad

more drastic), it’s still possible to find a silver

lining behind this dark cloud.

First of all, resort economies, once largely

sellers’ markets, are now giving buyers a

chance. With ample inventory to choose from

and low interest rates, it’s a good time to make

a purchase. Secondly, Telluride has endured

negative market effects now for roughly 18

fractional ownership might be one of the

first elements of the market to come back.

“Resort real estate buyers will be more

focused on value, especially value through

use. Buyers will either want to use the

resort property as often as possible or will

only want to pay for what they believe will

be their typical level of use by buying fractional

real estate or by joining private residence

clubs.”

As for monthly breakdowns in the

Telluride region during the first half of the

year, they were as follows:

Month Total Dollar # of Sales

January $13,694,250 21

February $18,717,000 11

March $12,174,574 21

April $10,730,062 23

May $11,864,900 9

June $12,864,859 20

While these rather sluggish numbers

may cause some gasps, primarily in comparison

to the $41 million-$77 million

January through June span just two years

ago, there were several notable sales in

early 2009.

In January, a $5.25 million parcel sold

on West Meadows; in February, a $2.1 million

condo sold in Telluride, a $2.4 million

condo sold in Mountain Village, and a $10

million home sold in Gray Head; in March,

two $1.3 million condos, a $3.3 million

condo, and a $2.4 million home all sold in

Mountain Village; in April, a $1.6 million

condo sold in Mountain Village and a $3.1

million home sold in Aldasoro; in May, a

$4.7 million home and a $4.2 million

home sold in Mountain Village, and a $1.6

million home sold on Specie Mesa; and in

June, a $1.2 million condo and a $1.2 million

home both sold in Telluride, a $3.5

million parcel sold in Montrose, and a $2.7

million home sold in Mountain Village.

Whether some or all of these transactions

were considered “deals,” compared

to what they might have sold for a few

years ago, the point is people are still

spending money. And hopefully this trend

will continue as more confidence is

regained in the economy.

According to a Newsweek article, published

July 25, 2009, by Daniel Gross, “The

Great Recession…is most likely over.

Home sales, while still far below the levels

of a year ago, have risen for three straight

months—a first since 2004. The stock market

has rallied 44 percent since March…”

As for Jim Cramer, he likely has as

many foes as fans, but it would be comforting,

nonetheless, if his prediction is

correct. Perhaps the first two quarters of

the year can be chalked up as part of the

trip toward bottom, and the worst might

in fact be over.

Data compiled by TAR is deemed accurate but not guaranteed

© KIM HILLEY

Telluride Continues to Plug Away

Numbers Down but Notable Sales and National Predictions Encouraging

MARKET UPDATE

T E L LU R I D E AS S O C I AT I O N O F R E A LTO R S ©

O C T O B E R 2 0 0 9 T E L L U R I D E , C O L O R A D O

Year Total $ Volume Sales #’s Average Price

2001 $162 million 315 $514,000

2002 $127 million 339 $375,000

2003 $151 million 304 $497,000

2008 $174 million* 192 $906,000

2009 $80 million 105 $762,000

*Total dollar volume for the first two quarters of 2008 was largely bolstered

by $69 million in April (four residential sales between $6 million

and $11.1 million). The other five months in early 2008 had totals closer

to those in 2009 ($14 million-$29 million in 2008, compared to $11

million-$19 million in 2009).


John Janus